Three Weeks of Dodger Death

Three weeks ago, I declared the Dodgers dead. Today, I believe it was the right move and I am satisfied that I didn't string myself along any longer than I did. At that time, the Dodgers chances looked poor and I didn't see THAT TEAM getting hot and getting back into the playoff race. There are times where a team with the same record would seemingly inspire more confidence because they are more capable of gaining ground.

On July 22, the Dodgers were 51-45 and the Phillies were 49-46. From that day, the Phillies would go onto win 16 of the next 20 games, the sixteenth being the rubber game of the LA series where the Phillies came back from a seven-run deficit in the last two innings. During that streak of games, they lost Ryan Howard and Shane Victorino while being without Chase Utley the entire time. That is the kind of team that I would hitch my wagon to and I would give them a chance of making the playoffs.

The Dodgers on the other hand inspire much less confidence. They had and continue to have their injuries too but trading away Blake DeWitt made the Dodgers worse in half of the positions. I didn't buy the effort to compete by shuffling players around and it ended up being the laughing stock that it seemed it would be. The fan has a write to keep up the hope as long as the team has a chance but a fan also has the right to write off his or her team no matter what the chances that the team will make the playoffs.

The Dodgers have managed to capture my interest despite my declaration and my unfortunate night at the ballpark on August 12th. I lacked belief in the team but I was still watching because I could have been wrong and I am a fan of the team. This last month is going to be harder to watch when there will be other meaningful baseball games. It's easy to get used to going to the playoffs but it's not happening this season.

I will be watching the teams that are vying for and those that are going to make the playoffs. The great part about baseball is being in the playoffs and it's unwise to forget what it's like to be there. Some of the September call-ups should be interesting to watch as well. The Dodgers probably won't have much going on in that department but if they get at least one prospect up to the bigs, that might be worth viewing. The McCourt Divorce might actually be the most crucial contest to follow at this point. There are always reasons to watch but it won't be the same with the Dodgers not playing in the postseason.

Manny is just like Manny

Manny is headed to Cleveland to join his new team, the Pale Hose crew from the South Side of Chicago. The Dodgers are getting some compensation and the Sox get their bat. I am happy with the deal because it gives the Dodgers cash. With the $4 million dollars that Dodgers might get and the $7 million or so that was returned to the Dodgers during Manny's suspension last year makes Manny's two year deal cheaper than Andruw Jones' deal. Manny didn't bring us success and he was a clown at times but he wasn't the clown that Andruw was.

It was the right move to deal Manny away and it was also the right move to put him on the bench. Joe Torre had to lie through his teeth that they were trying to win with Manny on the bench but it would have been nice for him to say something like "we are selling Manny away and we don't want him to get hurt." That is what they were doing and I don't understand the outrage. The hypocrisy I get but, if you have a clue, you know why protecting a player that could return $4 million dollars is a good idea. All the lying with it was a little excessive because teams are going to tell you things that aren't true but you should learn to read between the lines.

Getting back to Manny, I don't think it will work but it is worth it for the White Sox to give it a try. The warning track power Manny was showing this season in LA could lead to many dingers in U.S. Cellular Field.  I think that the Twins are still better but I would like to see the White Sox win the division. It's good for the White Sox who have needed a power bat in the DH slot all year. Ozzie Guillen refused Jim Thome, refused any other power hitter and they got Mark Kotsay, Andruw Jones, Juan Pierre and Mark Teahen sharing the DH duties and disgraceful results ensued.

Manny appears to be in the AL to stay and I wish him well. He disappointed me last year with the substance violation and he disappointed me this year by questionably disappearing due to minor injuries that kept him away longer than normal. I would have liked two good cracks at the World Series but Manny wasn't the only reason that they will undoubtedly fall short. We knew what we were getting, however. Turns out the best we got of Manny was before the contract. After the 2008 season, I wanted him back and I wasn't alone. Manny wasn't a great investment but he didn't blow up on the Dodgers. It was time for him to go and another Dodgers left fielder becomes the White Sox's problem.

That doesn't leave much left for us Dodgers fans but there hasn't much there to be had, with or without him.

So you're telling me there is a chance?

With the Dodgers sweeping the Brewers at Miller park, they stand five games back in the Wild Card race. With 34 games left to go, it is tempting to think that there is a linear path for the Dodgers to take if they get a run going. There seems to exist a camp of people that think the Dodgers still have a chance to close that gap. PECOTA says the Dodgers have a 3.5% chance of making the playoffs but if you don't buy PECOTA, you should know that BP isn't too far out of line.

The White Sox sit 3.5 games back from the Twins. PECOTA only gives them a 13% chance to win the AL Central but the Sox only have one team to beat. You say you still don't buy PECOTA and that's fine. However, if the Sox, currently at 69-58, go 23-12 (nearly winning 2/3 of their games), the Sox finish 92-70. The Twins, at 73-55, can go 20-14 (around .600 ball) to beat them. If the Sox play .600 ball and go 90-72, the Twins only have to go 17-17, .500, to beat them. The Twins, to date, have won 57% of their games, so going .500 would mean that the Twins can slouch and still win the division. That is why such a lead is more insurmountable that it appears.

The Dodgers problems are compounded because they have four teams to beat and they are further behind! If the Dodgers go 23-11 (around .667), the Dodgers finish 89-73. You can't tell me that one of the teams ahead of the Dodgers in the Wild Card race won't win 90 total games, negating the Dodgers hypothetically incredible  run at the last playoff spot. THIS is what makes the Dodgers chances small. The Dodgers can still go on a tear and  it only takes one of the four teams ahead of the Dodgers playing great baseball to beat the Dodgers out.

The Dodgers have shown that they can go on a tear as they went 24-10 from April 30th to June 9th. They were a much better team than they are now. Martin, Furcal and DeWitt are gone and Barajas, Carroll and Theriot are in their place. I don't like saying that the Dodgers don't have much of a chance because I want them in the playoffs but they just aren't that good of a team. I am still watching and still interested but this team is not the same team that went on that streak in the second month of this season.

Manny could be on his way to the South Side today and, while that definitely hurts any chance the Dodgers have of making the playoffs, it's time for him to go. It's no that he isn't interested when he is on the field but it's more that he isn't interested in being on the field. Call me skeptical or ruthless but I don't think that Manny has been committed to doing all that he can to help the Dodgers get to the playoffs. He has the say as to whether or not he takes the field and he has chosen to sit out more times than he probably needed to. Joe Torre isn't exactly pleading to keep Manny. I think he is sick of his act. I just don't get the feeling that the rest of the team and the coaches are that worried about Manny going. The organization is on the hook to pay him years down the road but the team only has him for a month or two at most.

I would rather have Manny than Scotty Pods but I don't think Manny is worth keeping for the rest of the year because I don't think the Dodgers make the playoffs even if Manny is still in house. This series sweep hasn't changed my opinion on the playoff chances of this team. From here on out, the Dodgers are going to have to average a series win. If they end next week having won six or seven games against the Rockies, Phillies and Giants, they will be onto something. If they get there, they will have to continue at that same clip into September to have a chance. That's how far away they are right now.

Today's brews: Milwaukee's Best? and Natural(ly) Light(-hitting) Dodgers?

Manny sits out of the final game against the Brewers as he awaits other teams' offers. The Dodgers have put two wins together but is it anything more than a dead cat bounce? I am going to wait to see how today's game and the weekend series in Colorado goes. I don't think that the Dodgers can catch the Giants, Cards or the healthy Phillies but, if they have any designs to do so, they should get past the Rockies first.

I am thankful I am not a Milwaukee Brewers fan because that franchise hasn't seen much success and they have so few key players that they feel they have to create a CC Sabathia bobblehead night. It would make me furious if there were a Jeff Kent or Nomar bobblehead night this year. It's just tacky to have such an event when it's been nearly 23 months since CC has been in a Brewers uniform. Butt Selig is to blame, of course.

Considering the Dodgers aren't completely eliminated, it is good to see some of those players I mentioned in my previous post find their way on the waiver wire. It's a whole other question as to whether or not those players will be claimed and another as to whether or not Ned pulls the trigger on a deal or two for those players.

I haven't been completely enamored with Ryan Theriot but I will tell you that he can slide. I don't think he is an upgrade on Blake DeWitt but he has the bat to be in a Major League lineup. Occasionally, he can lead off but he shouldn't be batting second. A good team would not be hampered by Theriot batting seventh or eighth.  I hope the Dodgers future plan for Theriot is to be a utility middle infielder.

2 HR's > Slappily Manufacturing Runs

Earl Weaver would have been proud because the Dodgers hit the "f***ing ball out of the f***ing ballpark," getting dingers from Kemp and Barajas. It's true that one of the skills that Barajas possesses that makes him marginally better than Eliis or Ausmus is that he can hit a HR and he did right off the bat. He also had two doubles and while that doesn't mean that he will lead the Dodgers to the playoffs, it makes the catcher situation less embarrassing for the moment.

Another embarrassment would be not waiving Manny Ramirez, especially now that the White Sox have made it known they will claim him. This should have been done yesterday but you do this before he gets "hurt" again. I haven't heard anything about what Boras has to say to this. I would think that going to an AL team as a DH would help Manny's future but it might hurt if he doesn't hit well. I think he gets a deal after this year regardless but he stands to earn more money if he makes a difference. If Manny looks like Thome did last year for the Dodgers, whether it be here or elsewhere, he will get a contract similar to Thome's, was one year at $5 million. I think this deal will get done.

Having lived the majority of my life in Illinois, I am also partial to the White Sox. I am a Dodgers fan first and that is why Juan Pierre burns me less in a White Sox uniform than he does in a Dodgers uniform. While the White Sox could use Manny as a DH, I don't think even he can make up the current distance that the White Sox are behind the Twins. I think he is worth a shot for the Sox.

There is also interest in Hiroki Kuroda and I believe the Dodgers should be in sell mode. If Ned Colletti wants to hold onto Ted Lilly in a desperate attempt to keep the soon to be unafforable lefty around next year, perhaps they should part with Kuroda, who has been worth it. Fangraphs values Kuroda's total worth in dollars for the three years with the Dodgers at $37.4 million, more than the $35.3 million they have paid him. He provided more value than his contract despite missing some time last year. It doesn't sound like the Dodgers are interested in signing him and believing what I do about the Dodgers chances, I can say that putting him on waivers would give the Dodgers roughly $2.5 million if he were claimed and would be worth it.

From there, the Dodgers should do what the Angels did and put every expiring asset on waivers. It's time to sell. So, in addition to EVERY player the Dodgers have acquired in a trade in the past month, the Dodgers should waive Manny, Kuroda, Reed Johnson, Casey Blake (he has another year but why not?), Ronnie Belliard, Jeff Weaver, Jamey Carroll, George Sherrill and Jay Gibbons. Most of these guys will boomerang back but those that are claimed will provide some cash and those that make it through may entice other teams to make a deal. The Angels and many other teams have shown that it isn't out of line to do that and it can only help the ball club.

If anyone still cares about what this team does down the stretch, it's a lost cause. Due to PECOTA, we have an estimate of the Dodgers' chances and a good poker metaphor could be made. Kenny Rogers has already infiltrated my mind after typing this much. The bottom line is that Ned should fold because once September 1st arrives, all of the remaining veterans on this team that isn't going anywhere are going to get in the way of any call-ups and they will look obscene and unnecessary in the Dodgers lineup.

Update 8/25 4pm ET: Per Dylan Hernandez: Manny, Casey Blake, Scotty Pods and Jay Gibbons have been placed on waivers.

Update 2: Hiroki Kuroda is on waivers as well.

Out with the old and in with the new manager

With Lou Piniella retiring next year, it ends another failed campaign by an accomplished manager. Bobby Cox is on his farewell tour and might enjoy some success but, beyond him, most of the corps of old great managers haven't had much success lately. Dusty Baker's Reds could be in the mix but he hasn't proven he's done shredding young arms and that he stopped believing in holy water. He is a product of having a great farm system but is still an idiot. Hopefully, Jon Weisman's allusion is incorrect. Joe Torre is proving that he can't handle a team that is completely assembled no matter how much he tries to compensate by trying to manufacture runs. Tony LaRussa has won a Series recently and he will be on the market at the end of the season. After being with the Cards for many years, he may join the ranks of the manager for hire, though you can have him because he's an insufferable asswipe. 

With these managers for hire, they don't get paid to develop talent, they don't get paid to be patient. They get paid to win. As a Dodgers fan, I liked the Torre hire. The Dodgers were in position to make the playoffs and, in turn, win the World Series and Joe Torre is best at managing a team in their window. He knows how to run a clubhouse, he trusts his hunches on players, he handles slumping veteran players well and he doesn't panic. This season has proven that he doesn't function well outside of a championship window. 

The Dodgers' Trade Deadline decisions fall on Ned Colletti regardless of whether Joe or Ned made the grocery list. Without Manny Ramirez and Rafael Furcal, the Dodgers were fading and those trades for Scott Podsednik, Ryan Theriot and Octavio Dotel made them worse. The Dodgers are at a point now where they are basically done but still have an infinitesimal chance to make the playoffs. I declared them dead two weeks ago and they haven't gained any ground since. Now, they are at a point where they could go into improvement mode. They don't need to rebuild necessarily but they need to rest the veterans and ensure the youngsters get more experience. Joe Torre isn't the manager to do something like that. 

Torre will announce his plans when the Dodgers are eliminated from playoff competition. With Torre's age, Ned as GM and the pervasive McCourt divorce, I doubt he comes back. As much as I liked his first two years here, I would be alright with him departing. Torre has gone stale as the old hired gun managers do when the window closes on their team when they are still there. Torre could leave tomorrow but it works out well for him to ride off into the sunset at the end of the season. It's better than Piniella and his Cubs, whose window closed when they lost the NLDS in 2008. There is a time for the hired gun manager but, at present, these managers have expired. 

For the Dodgers, who might hire Tim Wallach or Don Mattingly as manager next year, Cubs, Braves and other teams looking for a manager at the end of this season, it's time to look to a more long-term manager. I like the idea of finding a manager that has the future interests of the team in mind when the team is out of contention. I want a manager that is more interested in Matt Kemp's maturation than Scott Podsednik's perpetuation. I want a manager that is keen to today's game. Torre still thinks it's the late 70's with his foray in manufacturing runs with slappy players. It's time for a manager that is more like Joe Madden and less than Joe Torre. Torre is a Hall of Fame manager but "The Dodger Years" has not been a great sequel to Torre's "Yankees Years." 


My pick for new manager is Tim Wallach but it's only because he would be something different and he has went about becoming a manager the right way. Other than that, I don't have any good reason to think he will be a successful manager. I worry about any manager being influenced by Ned Colletti. The GM position is more consequential at this point. Until then, Joe Torre will sully the end of his career. 

Barajas Doesn't Mean Much But Vinny Does

The Dodgers claimed Rod Barajas, the 35 year old catcher, off of waivers on Sunday. The Mets basically wanted him off of their roster and it's easy to see why. By the end of May, Rod Barajas had tallied 11 HR's but has only hit one more from June 1 to present. He has totaled a disappointing .225/.263/.414 for the year and has only thrown out 4 base runners in 27 attempts.

He is an upgrade, however. Brad Ausmus hasn't thrown out a base-stealer in 9 attempts and A.J. Ellis has thrown out 5 of 25. Ausmus is hitting .196/.275/.217 and Ellis is hitting .208/.266/.236. With Barajas entering the fold, Ausmus will stay and Ellis will go down. Barajas isn't a great hitter but he should be better than Ausmus and Ellis who really hit like the starting pitcher hitting after them. Barajas may be a boost but I don't think it is an indication that the Dodgers are still "in competition."

I still think that the Dodgers think they are in it and it will be confirmed by how long Manny Ramirez, Ted Lilly and anyone else of value stick around. The White Sox, Rays, Yankees and the Rangers could each use Manny Ramirez as their DH. Pretty much any team in contention could take a flier on Ted Lilly. If Ned hasn't placed these players on waivers, we have to believe that they believe they are in contention.

I was wrong about Manny when I said he wasn't coming back. I may not have been wrong about his delays in getting back but we saw him in a Dodgers uniform and Saturday's lineup had him hitting third and that was the first time in about a month where the Dodgers lineup didn't make me sick.

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Vin Scully announced that he will return next year! That is a relief considering everything else that is going on in the organization. It is without hyperbole that I can say that the Dodgers have the best broadcaster in baseball and perhaps in all of sports. He continues to display humility, charm, wisdom and professionalism every time he broadcasts a Dodgers game.

It's also a relief that his retention will not give the job to Lyons and Collins. There may be the law of broadcast conservation going on because with Vinny being the best baseball broadcaster there is, those two couldn't come up with an original baseball thought all season. Perhaps Charlie Steiner would have stepped in but not having Lyons and Collins calling games is a victory for the Dodger fans.