2011 Dodgers At Bat: What Marcel Tells Us

When I look at the upcoming season, I try to envision what the Dodgers will be able to do at the plate. At this point, it seems that the Dodgers are much weaker at the plate (and in the field which could be important but not as important as hitting). A lot of pressure will be put on Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier to drive the Dodgers' lineup through the long and arduous season. After that, who will be able to do so? Rafael Furcal is more than capable but he has to stay healthy. Juan Uribe may have some leftover magic left from last season but he won't be asked to play above his career averages (though he will be asked to hit #3 and #4 in the lineup quite a bit. James Loney might (10 to 20% chance of that, IMO) and Casey Blake won't carry the team. Don't even ask the catchers and left fielders about helping in that department.

However, the sum of the Dodgers' parts might be enough to contribute to what should be a good amount of quality starts from the starting rotation. I am choosing to look at Tangtiger's Marcel projections and compare the team totals of the Dodgers. Though you have to account for some over-counting as some of the utility guys on the Dodgers have been given more at-bats than they may see but there are some things that stand out to me regarding the Marcel projections (yes I put Aaron Miles on there but only to induce nausea):

Name	mAB	mR	1B	mH	m2B	m3B	mHR	mRBI	mSB	mCS	mBB	mSO
Kemp	544	79	98	150	26	5	21	78	24	10	47	137
Ethier	494	72	84	139	32	2	21	76	5	2	55	96
Gibbons	217	29	38	57	10	1	8	32	3	2	18	44
Thames	314	39	49	79	13	1	16	45	1	2	28	86
Loney	530	63	102	146	30	3	11	78	8	4	51	80
Uribe	484	58	77	124	26	3	18	68	3	2	37	95
Blake	481	62	78	122	26	2	16	64	3	3	47	121
Barajas	383	43	56	90	19	0	15	54	2	1	21	72
Furcal	433	67	83	120	23	5	9	42	15	5	43	70
Carroll	386	55	83	103	15	2	3	33	9	4	44	77
Gwynn	363	46	65	87	13	4	5	27	14	5	43	65
Navarro	281	30	51	70	14	0	5	28	3	2	21	42
Ellis	233	24	45	61	11	1	4	30	3	1	24	44
Paul	241	33	40	61	14	2	5	27	5	2	21	48
Miles	268	31	55	70	11	1	3	21	3	2	17	38
m2011	5652	731	1004	1479	283	32	160	703	101	47	517	1115
br2010	5426	667	949	1368	270	29	120	621	92	50	533	1184

The projections do not account for pitcher or John Lindsay at bats while the Baseball Reference totals from last year do but the projections fill out well enough. The Dodgers were 14th in the NL in total at-bats so the numbers might not be that far off if the Dodgers can have longer innings more often.

I look at the HR totals (160 vs. 120) and that is a significant increase over last year. Even if Marcel gives Thames and Gibbons too many at bats, the projections look for the Dodgers to have more power than last year. Getting 64 more runs would be nice as well. That should equate to roughly 6 more wins if the Dodgers match the projection. The Dodgers may also strike out less (69 times less says Marcel). While striking out isn't the capital crime it was decades ago, the Dodgers doing less of it should translate into putting the ball in play and having more outcomes determined by the opposing fielders.

This isn't meant to be ground-breaking, deadly accurate or terribly insightful. I had some concern over what the Dodgers would do at the plate this year without Manny, Russell Martin and some players in decline. Some of my fear are dispelled because you can add Juan Uribe, Marcus Thames and Rod Barajas which will increase the power in the lineup but this team may in fact hit more home runs.

I have been talked out of the Dodgers' offense collapsing for a second straight year. I still don't think they are going to win the division this year but they might just prove that a lineup without much pop in the heart of it isn't necessary to score runs on a team level. I do expect the players who may not carry the team to play above replacement level, however. The catcher, first base and left field positions have to not suck.

Please excuse the lousy transfer of the numbers from the spreadsheet. Thanks to Baseball Reference and Tangotiger for the archive and projection numbers respectively.