Monday, February 14, 2011

What Rotochamps says about the 2011 Dodgers

My last post was on what Tangotiger's Marcel projections had to say about the Dodgers. Now, I am going to add Rotochamps to the discussion. Rotochamps (and Marcel) can be found at Fangraphs.

I couldn't find numbers on the last five Dodger hitters so I plugged in their Marcel numbers. Arguably, those players are the least valuable so I believe something can be learned by adding their meager numbers. So here are the Rotochamps projections:


567
92
161
95
38
2
26
94
3
3
65
109
601
92
168
110
26
6
26
78
27
10
51
159
511
83
146
101
28
7
10
49
22
7
53
76
577
84
166
117
35
3
11
85
8
4
55
85
477
61
126
80
24
2
20
66
1
3
38
89
277
37
70
44
10
0
16
39
0
1
25
79
492
72
130
84
27
2
17
70
3
2
50
125
300
38
81
54
10
0
17
44
0
4
16
56
268
41
71
58
8
3
2
25
14
5
36
46
267
30
65
39
13
0
13
35
0
0
12
47
Carroll
386
55
103
83
15
2
3
33
9
4
44
77
Navarro
281
30
71
50
14
0
5
28
3
2
21
42
Ellis
233
24
61
45
11
1
4
30
3
1
24
44
Paul
241
33
61
40
14
2
5
27
5
2
21
48
Miles
268
31
70
55
11
1
3
21
3
2
17
38
2011 RC
5746
803
1550
1055
284
31
178
724
101
50
528
1120
m2011
5652
731
1004
1479
283
32
160
703
101
47
517
1115
br2010
5426
667
949
1368
270
29
120
621
92
50
533
1184


So, with a hundred more at bats than the Marcel totals and 320 more AB's than last season, the Dodgers project to score over 800 runs (!) and rap six hundred more hits than last season. That translates to 58 more home runs and the rest singles, apparently. The Dodgers have only scored 800+ runs once since 1962 (820 in 2006). Notice Rafael Furcal getting what would be a full season for him. These numbers are probably a little high. I guess it would be a good thing if Jamey Carroll scores 100 runs but I don't see that happening.

In 577 AB's, Jay Gibbons and Marcus Thames are projected to combine for 33 HR's. If they can stop from being bad in the field (perhaps with late inning help from Tony Gwynn Jr. or Xavier Paul), that looks like a success for the left field platoon. Rotochamps have Gibbons batting .270/.309/.473/.782 and Thames .252/319/.462/.781. If Gibbons can hit righties, he will get to a .270 average.

Here are the Rotochamps projections of the available Dodger hitters:


OPS
.wOBA
567
92
161
95
38
2
26
94
3
3
65
109
0.284
0.364
0.496
0.859
0.372
601
92
168
110
26
6
26
78
27
10
51
159
0.279
0.339
0.473
0.811
0.355
511
83
146
101
28
7
10
49
22
7
53
76
0.286
0.354
0.427
0.781
0.348
577
84
166
117
35
3
11
85
8
4
55
85
0.287
0.353
0.416
0.769
0.341
477
61
126
80
24
2
20
66
1
3
38
89
0.264
0.322
0.449
0.771
0.334
277
37
70
44
10
0
16
39
0
1
25
79
0.252
0.319
0.462
0.781
0.338
492
72
130
84
27
2
17
70
3
2
50
125
0.265
0.342
0.431
0.773
0.34
300
38
81
54
10
0
17
44
0
4
16
56
0.27
0.309
0.473
0.782
0.331
268
41
71
58
8
3
2
25
14
5
36
46
0.266
0.354
0.34
0.694
0.32
267
30
65
39
13
0
13
35
0
0
12
47
0.242
0.289
0.438
0.727
0.315




Not that is worth a whole lot but the Dodgers probably will be a better base-stealing team than what both projection systems project. I'm not saying Davy Lopes will bring in stolen base magic but he should stop Kemp from being so terrible out there and should help the Dodgers make stealing a base worthwhile. According to the projections, the Dodgers would be better off not stealing bases if they can't even do so as a 70% clip.

I am going to say that these numbers are a reach but it is plausible that the Dodgers could come close to some of these projections. Remember these guys if the Dodgers end up scoring 800 runs.

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