What Rotochamps says about the 2011 Dodgers

My last post was on what Tangotiger's Marcel projections had to say about the Dodgers. Now, I am going to add Rotochamps to the discussion. Rotochamps (and Marcel) can be found at Fangraphs.

I couldn't find numbers on the last five Dodger hitters so I plugged in their Marcel numbers. Arguably, those players are the least valuable so I believe something can be learned by adding their meager numbers. So here are the Rotochamps projections:

Name	AB	R	H	1B	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO
Andre Ethier	567	92	161	95	38	2	26	94	3	3	65	109
Matt Kemp	601	92	168	110	26	6	26	78	27	10	51	159
Rafael Furcal	511	83	146	101	28	7	10	49	22	7	53	76
James Loney	577	84	166	117	35	3	11	85	8	4	55	85
Juan Uribe	477	61	126	80	24	2	20	66	1	3	38	89
Marcus Thames	277	37	70	44	10	0	16	39	0	1	25	79
Casey Blake	492	72	130	84	27	2	17	70	3	2	50	125
Jay Gibbons	300	38	81	54	10	0	17	44	0	4	16	56
Tony Gwynn	268	41	71	58	8	3	2	25	14	5	36	46
Rod Barajas	267	30	65	39	13	0	13	35	0	0	12	47
Carroll	386	55	103	83	15	2	3	33	9	4	44	77
Navarro	281	30	71	50	14	0	5	28	3	2	21	42
Ellis	233	24	61	45	11	1	4	30	3	1	24	44
Paul	241	33	61	40	14	2	5	27	5	2	21	48
Miles	268	31	70	55	11	1	3	21	3	2	17	38
2011 RC	5746	803	1550	1055	284	31	178	724	101	50	528	1120
m2011	5652	731	1004	1479	283	32	160	703	101	47	517	1115
br2010	5426	667	949	1368	270	29	120	621	92	50	533	1184

So, with a hundred more at bats than the Marcel totals and 320 more AB's than last season, the Dodgers project to score over 800 runs (!) and rap six hundred more hits than last season. That translates to 58 more home runs and the rest singles, apparently. The Dodgers have only scored 800+ runs once since 1962 (820 in 2006). Notice Rafael Furcal getting what would be a full season for him. These numbers are probably a little high. I guess it would be a good thing if Jamey Carroll scores 100 runs but I don't see that happening.

In 577 AB's, Jay Gibbons and Marcus Thames are projected to combine for 33 HR's. If they can stop from being bad in the field (perhaps with late inning help from Tony Gwynn Jr. or Xavier Paul), that looks like a success for the left field platoon. Rotochamps have Gibbons batting .270/.309/.473/.782 and Thames .252/319/.462/.781. If Gibbons can hit righties, he will get to a .270 average.

Here are the Rotochamps projections of the available Dodger hitters:

Name	AB	R	H	1B	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	.wOBA
Andre Ethier	567	92	161	95	38	2	26	94	3	3	65	109	0.284	0.364	0.496	0.859	0.372
Matt Kemp	601	92	168	110	26	6	26	78	27	10	51	159	0.279	0.339	0.473	0.811	0.355
Rafael Furcal	511	83	146	101	28	7	10	49	22	7	53	76	0.286	0.354	0.427	0.781	0.348
James Loney	577	84	166	117	35	3	11	85	8	4	55	85	0.287	0.353	0.416	0.769	0.341
Juan Uribe	477	61	126	80	24	2	20	66	1	3	38	89	0.264	0.322	0.449	0.771	0.334
Marcus Thames	277	37	70	44	10	0	16	39	0	1	25	79	0.252	0.319	0.462	0.781	0.338
Casey Blake	492	72	130	84	27	2	17	70	3	2	50	125	0.265	0.342	0.431	0.773	0.34
Jay Gibbons	300	38	81	54	10	0	17	44	0	4	16	56	0.27	0.309	0.473	0.782	0.331
Tony Gwynn	268	41	71	58	8	3	2	25	14	5	36	46	0.266	0.354	0.34	0.694	0.32
Rod Barajas	267	30	65	39	13	0	13	35	0	0	12	47	0.242	0.289	0.438	0.727	0.315

Not that is worth a whole lot but the Dodgers probably will be a better base-stealing team than what both projection systems project. I'm not saying Davy Lopes will bring in stolen base magic but he should stop Kemp from being so terrible out there and should help the Dodgers make stealing a base worthwhile. According to the projections, the Dodgers would be better off not stealing bases if they can't even do so as a 70% clip.

I am going to say that these numbers are a reach but it is plausible that the Dodgers could come close to some of these projections. Remember these guys if the Dodgers end up scoring 800 runs.